Things are getting clearer now. The man whom many had disparaged, who has attracted so much hate from some quarters for no reason, of whom so many bad things have been said – totally unjustified – is becoming the clear choice for 2023. I signed on much earlier because I would rather someone who has laboured hard and planned over decades, than someone who woke up from a nightmare and decides to go about recounting Nigeria’s laundry-list of woes, with hardly any intelligible solutions and no deep thinking behind his statements. It is what it is.
Professor Stefan Dercon’s book is still fresh in memory. Titled Gambling on Development – Why Some Nations Win and Others Lose, the good professor – who had had a distinguished career in diplomacy for the United Kingdom, focused on Africa – says that there are no silver bullets in the game of socioeconomic development, and so nations must have to try their lucks in intelligent ways. He gave the example of China, where the elites in the single political party (Chinese Communist Party – CCP), had to gamble on shelving their own personal interests for proving that their usually criticised approach to politics could work for the people. 500 million have been lifted from poverty and China is a superpower. An elite consensus, holds Dercon, is imperative in achieving economic development. He however warns that no one should think the best approaches cannot fail and a good government gets disgraced out of office.
This forms one of my three ‘killer apps’ for which I believe Bola Tinubu is the man for the times. The other two are his preferment of a social democratic approach to governance. The third is the need for a seamless transition at this critical juncture of Nigeria’s development. We could then look at some of the promises in his campaign manifesto document which was launched on Friday 21st of October 2022 amidst much fanfare.
I write this from Ethiopia’s Bole Airport, which I found has greatly improved into a very modern and competitive airport since the last time I was here perhaps 5 years ago. The Ethiopians improved greatly through COVID-19 and have further consolidated on their niche – aviation in Africa, and tourism. Not that they manufacture airplanes, but they have mastered the logistics around planes, and also got their own people to do the servicing and maintenance. They have thus conquered Africa in this regard. I wondered if Nigeria could find a niche of its own and do something great with ourselves. Ethiopians also have tribal issues and their constitution which gives any constituent part of the country the right to opt out is presently giving the country so many problems (advocates of the same system in Nigeria should take note). We may not be at war, but too many years of lack of cooperation has opened this country up to all sorts of issues. We have become persona non grata in many places across the world. Even in Ethiopia. Some Nigerians made it their duty to damage the image of the country abroad over the decades, in the name of making money. We must tackle our problems.
Anyhow, let me dive into the three killer apps:
Elite Consensus.
Professor Dercon, the Oxford scholar has only provided some further assurance about the criticality of elite consensus from his intellectual perch. It is what we already knew. Vice President Osinbajo has mentioned it more than twice in official speeches. The issue is how do we move forward on it. Who can drive elite consensus? Nigeria has all the money and resources it requires to move forward in leaps. The snag is that our elites seem not totally sold on the idea of a greater country where things work and where they can enjoy what they have. Some of them prefer to be oppressors in the middle of mass penury. I have taken time to study American democracy and federalism in some detail and can say authoritatively that whatever we see here today as corruption also happened in the USA. Democracy being expensive, and presidential system being an insatiable monster, corruption still exists in the USA. I recall that the moment Muammar Gaddafi was killed, the Americans -m and even the Brits – could hardly disguise that they were in that country to loot resources. So, in the USA it may be difficult to merely dip hands into public coffers, but there are other ways by which political corruption is being perpetuated.
I therefore urge those savage critics of everything in Nigeria to read up on what some of the countries they ‘japa’ to have been through. They may realise that we needn’t destroy our country. They may realise that there is no need talking about Nigeria in that final, nihilistic fashion like there was no hope at all. There is hope. I mean, the USA has gone through 46 presidents and not all of them were on point. Some were outright disasters. Now, one is not saying we need 46 presidents or 200 years to make progress. Indeed the examples of America is there for us to hasten our approach. But we must banish hubris. We should be humble in our ambitions while working hard. That sounds paradoxical but is the fact. No, we aren’t smarter than the Americans. We should understand that we will have to stoop low in humility in order to make that much-needed progress. For Nigeria, development could be much faster, but it starts with the mind. A humble mind will see just how far the developed countries have gone and realise that we too have to do some things organically, not merely binge on what other peoples have created and innovated.
Bola Tinubu is a student of American politics. As I studied the history of how the Americans evolved, I realised that Tinubu has been in the library before me. From his use of notoriety (any publicity is good publicity), to his succession planning, and being a boss, I have a lot of respect for this super strategic planner.
I therefore believe that Bola Tinubu is well-positioned to cause an elite consensus – a long-awaited one – in Nigeria if he becomes president. The elites in Nigeria have great respect for him. Some may be afraid of what he could do if he becomes president. You either love or hate Tinubu. What you cannot do is ignore him. He is the kind of boss who can call a big meeting and lay down the rules for everybody to follow. Better still, as we live in a democracy, he can explain through anecdotes and very colourful adages to Nigerian elites, about which way we should all now go. I’m afraid his chief opponents do not have the political and intellectual weight to try any such thing without looking ridiculous. Bola is in pole position.
- Social Democracy
The unravelling of Liz Truss’ government in the UK is enough for anyone to have seen the folly of market fundamentalism – which are systems being peddled by Tinubu’s co-contestants. An article in the Guardian of UK wondered if Truss had finally killed the idea of the market being sufficient to allocate resources, forever. Whereas some people are cautious in advancing such ideas, Truss and her associates were arrogant, naïve, and almost condescending in their indoctrination. And the ‘market’ which they claimed to love and work for, promptly punished their untowardness. From the UK experience, we should have seen once and for all, that right thinking folks understand the need for responsible governance upon which government is built.
Perhaps the two other some of Tinubu’s opponents are stuck in their ways or they have simply not allowed their minds to open up to reality. Perhaps they have some constituencies which they hope to impress. Only someone like Adewole Adebayo of the SDP dares to speak robustly and not continually shove some ‘market’ down the throats of our people. Adebayo even claims that the government has been lying to us about the kind of abundance that we already have. Even I will not go that far. But Tinubu, as we will see in a quick analysis of his manifesto, and as is clear in his governance of Lagos State, is a social democrat. And that is who we need at this moment – someone who tends towards the kind of governance we have seen in all the countries that make some sense, from Europe, through USA (even though they like to act as if they don’t make provisions for their poor), to China (which started out as a communist country, but is today capitalist but with adequate provisions made for public goods and social welfare and even a robust plan to totally eradicate poverty through what is called ‘targeted poverty alleviation.’ Tinubu among the lot that are vying today has that perfect combination of maturity, vision, experience, and mindset.
- Seamless Transition
Nigerians must choose whether they want to spend the next four years at least, bellyaching and complaining about how things are bad, or whether they want to really get on with the work of economic development, bearing in mind that we will all have to make sacrifices. It is the sacrifice part of it that may be very problematic. Most thinkers believe that indeed Nigerians are not yet ready for change. We love to just have a government up there to rail about and this attitude – if we are to believe the early missionaries who came to Africa, including colonial administrators – has been with us for long. Prosperity is a mindset thing and has little to do with having the biggest houses or the fattest bank accounts. But we misunderstand it here, and if we were called to contribute towards really making society a better place, most of us will resist. I will write a different article about the kind of sacrifices that the incoming government may have to make. And Bola Tinubu has promised a few of those in his manifesto.
