Nigerians are leaving the country in droves and the trend seems to be, for the large part, one-way traffic. The trend has become so pronounced that a new word for it is gradually inching into the English lexicon, ‘Japa,’ a Yoruba word ‘escape.’
But that word elicits a question: escaping from where?
Many would say escaping from deepening hardship in Nigeria. Others say for better healthcare and social welfare; yet others say for better education and more promising future, yes, greener pastures. But who benefits from the mass exodus?
The Recent Trend
A report by the British General Medical Council shows that 896 doctors of Nigerian nationality sat for the Professional and Linguistic Assessments Board (PLAB) test between September 2016 and June 2017.
The PLAB test is for doctors who have qualified overseas and wish to practice medicine in the United Kingdom (UK) under limited registration – there are two parts to the PLAB test.
“The nationalities most frequently recorded in 2016-2017 were, in order of frequency, Nigerian, Pakistani, Indian and British,” the report said, adding that 74.6 per cent of the Nigerians that sat for the exams passed.
Just recently, the British government launched a new work visa for fast-growing businesses to hire skilled workers from abroad. In a recent report, Nigerian Information Technology (IT) workers emigrated to the UK in droves, including Nigerian banks, which witnessed exodus of their ICT workers and other professionals.
But it is far from the truth that Nigerians are attracted mainly to the UK. Indeed, Nigerians are going to every country around the globe that is perceived to hold some prospects for them. The trend makes Nigeria currently fifth of the most emigrating population in the world, after India, with 5.24 million, Ukraine with 4.83 million, Pakistan with 3.62 million, Bangladesh with 1.42 million, and Nigeria with 1.2 million.
But Who Wins From The Trend?
Every year, for example, for about a quarter of a century and counting, the United States has been issuing about 55,000 immigrant visas to foreign nationals. According to the US Immigrant Act of 1990, the Diversity Visa Programme is intended to diversify the immigrant population in the United States.
Nigerians have since then had their fair share of American Diversity Visas. But America is not the only country in the business of being generous in issuing immigrant visas. The United Kingdom, Australia, and recently, Canada have intensified their immigration programmes. The trend leaves many in wonderment, why industrialised nations are taking in more immigrants?
The most reasonable answer is to support the West’s welfare policy. The existence throughout the world of welfare states and social security systems is a relatively new phenomenon. Until the 20th century countries tended to tax their citizens purely in order to protect them from crime and invasion. However, in the wake of the First World War and the Great Depression, as the scale of penury faced by so many families became clear, some industrialised countries evolved into welfare states, where taxes are used to redistribute money to those adjudged to be most in need, be they old, infirm, or sick. The original model was developed in Germany by Bismarck the mid-1800s.
The theory behind pensions and social security is as simple today as when the system was first devised: the citizens of a country should contribute towards a general fund when they are working and in good health, and in return, that fund will help provide for their welfare when they are sick, unable to work or when in retirement.
Despite it having pulled many families out of poverty, and having dramatically improved health and academic standards throughout the Western world, the welfare state has also brought with it some major problems: socio-economic, but especially fiscal.
From the fiscal perspective, there is the problem of how to fund the welfare system in the long run. Most social welfare systems are funded out of government’s current budgets; they are largely pay as you go, with today’s taxpayers funding the pension bills for today’s retirees rather than their own future pensions. Such a system worked very well in the post-world war years: the massive explosion of population in the late 1940s and 1950s—the so-called ‘baby boom’ meant there were plenty of young workers paying their taxes into the pot throughout the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. However, with fertility having dwindled since, various countries, including those mentioned at the onset, as well as Japan and the larger Europe are facing a massive bill in the future.
The problem is particularly acute in the USA. The American system includes a state pension for all (social security), Medicare—free health insurance for the elderly and a number of other smaller programmes including Medicaid—health cover for the poor and temporary unemployment support. However, the system is facing a major crunch as the baby boomer generation retires.
For example, the share of the US population aged 65 is set to increase from 12 per cent to nearly 21 per cent by 2050, with this crop of pensioners living longer and demanding more medical care than ever before.
According to generational economists, who study the way one generation’s decisions can impinge on the next, the costs of welfare in the coming years –tied to the shrinking size of the working population, means that the US is by most definitions heading for outright bankruptcy. Similar predictions could be made of Japan, where 21 per cent of the population is already over 65, projected to rise to equal the working population by 2044.
To get out of this impending economic quagmire, one of the most practical solutions being proffered is to allow immigrants to come and work in the country, notably being adopted in the above-listed countries. This would increase the size of the workforce, coupled with the fact that many immigrant workers would retire to their home countries without claiming the state pension.
That solution creates a symbiotic relationship with many countries of the world, with Nigeria in focus. As an increasing number of Nigerian professionals migrate to such affluent countries, remittances to their home country continue to swell.
Nigerians living abroad remitted about $65 billion home over the last three years, and the amount is expected to reach $105 billion by 2025.
Without a doubt, Nigeria’s increasing youth population, with entrepreneurial spirit and so much zest to succeed will continue to fill in the labour gap of the West’s aging population. In so doing, remittances to the home nation will continue to grow, oiling a symbiotic lasting relationship.
But there can be no gainsaying the fact that Nigeria needs to replenish her exiting professional population to have continued development prospects.
On the other hand, in the long run, the evolving trend of brain circulation may work in Nigeria’s favour. Brain circulation is the trend where professionals leave their home country, migrate to more advanced countries, and return with better skills and experience to share with the local population.
