Congratulations on attaining your life ambition of becoming the president of a United Nigeria. Always viewed with caution those who had the office thrust upon them. A lack of preparation for the office affects their performance. Good to know you desired this office hence you should be better positioned for the office. Your predecessor also coveted the office but did not use the years prior to taking office to prepare and deliver the maximum good for the maximum number. The good he delivered was for a minority as he was busy herding cows in his doldrums years.
That you are psychologically prepared doesn’t guarantee success as Nigerian reality sets in and rubber hits the road. What is this Nigerian reality? Some say standard economic theories do not work in Nigeria, I beg to differ. Unorthodox economic policies have been thrust on us for last eight years and the non-result is glaring. Emulating economic policies that delivered for other peoples is a good place to start rather than believing it would not work for Nigeria.
You must desire to deliver the most good to most Nigerians, including your cronies knowing this is Nigeria. The way you can is by achieving a vibrant fast growing economy that engages our youthful population, nothing more nothing less. A bridge here a road there, as important as they are, will not deliver for the many, only the economy does it for the many whether they voted for you or not. Hence you can’t afford to play politics or cronyism with the economy.
That the economy is failing most Nigerians is not in doubt and short of sounding like a broken record Nigeria has turned out to become poverty champions of the world. This in spite of efforts, talk and razzmatazz of last eight years. Therefore the first task of your good self and your economic team is to get done a post mortem to get to the root of this failure. Learn from your predecessor’s mistakes, he came up with all types of programs and direct government interventions but applied policies that were and still is detrimental to the larger economy.
Be reminded sir that you provided human resource in the likes of the Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Alhaji Aregbesola, Babatunde Fashola, Fowler et al and the philosophy for the outgoing administration though you were neither in cabinet or inner council. I don’t believe you can distant yourself from the doings of this administration leading to a debt problem which was not there in 2015. It was at your birthday that former finance minister Mrs kemi Adeosun stated that they were toeing your economic philosophy.
Well, it never worked and it is time for your economic philosophy to give way to economic pragmatism. By your worldview you might be tempted to have your government hitting the ground running but it might be that by your government intervening less might actually deliver more for the people. I am bringing this up because of your utterances of populist programs. You will be repeating mistakes of the past. For example, how would students pay back the loans when they can’t find jobs? Student loans have worked in economies that generate better paying jobs for graduates. Student loans are becoming burdensome in the US for the beneficiaries of the loans. Social programs and subsidies are difficult to stop, it’s advisable they are not started. Don’t in your enthusiasm be tempted to do more and if you want to do more, do it for the larger economy to achieve the double digit growth you talk about. The vibrant economy will then deliver for more Nigerians.
Immediate actions you will undertake for the economy include calming investors and businesses, letting them know they will not be taxed to death. That policy arbitrariness like closing our borders, banning twitter, seizing cash or withdrawing certificate of occupancy will not be in your administration and beyond. This sends signals to organised private sector who knowing your antecedents in Lagos are probably fretting. It will also help reverse the flight of foreign and local investors. More needs be done to get us back as leading destination of FDI in Africa. Avoid tokenism, propagandising etc, for while the electorate can fall for it serious business entrepreneurs won’t.
Achieving a stable value for the national currency is central to sending right signals to investors and having salutary effects on the economy. A 180 degree policy reversal is necessary. In 2014/15 it was about promising appreciation of the Naira to as ridiculous as one naira buying one dollar. This time apart from your government reverting to market determinant Naira value, seek a gradual depreciation of the currency to encourage exports as it is in exports you will have opportunities for achieving double digit growth.
This also ameliorates government revenue problems at least revenue in local currency. Why discount government dollar sales by 40 per cent thus reducing government revenue? All talk of revenue problem abates with this singular act. There was hardly any adverse effects on the economy when former president Obasanjo eliminated the wider arbitrage that existed in 1999. Then CBN rate was 22 naira to dollar while market rate was around #80:00. The management of the naira in last eight years is a root reason the economy stalled
By adopting curent market rates a short-term debt problem arises as Nigeria’s debt will be marked up from 77 trillion naira to about 100 trillion naira. However since the action also increases government revenues it is a surmountable problem. Still on economy, pundits and government officials say we should diversify the economy yet government budget is tied to crude oil pricing. Mr President-elect sir, do the nation a favour and begin phasing out this practice. Work on using tax receipts from economic activities to determine budget.
A strategic change in the use of current dollar receipts from oil and gas is needed by taking a queue from how Japan’s ministry of international trade and industry (MITI) allocated scarce hard currencies after WW11. Use our forex to accumulate capital goods in the economy that translates into production for exports thus putting in place a virtuous cycle of growing reserves and stabilising the naira. The ability of oil and gas proceeds to increase our country’s reserve has stalled. Sir, direct that we use the last leg of Nigerias petrodollar receipts on capital goods accumulation and not on frivolities.
A vibrant economy solves a host of problems that border on security of life and property, however might aggravate the farmer herdsmen conflict. The root cause of the crisis is competition for water and land resources. With growing economic activities more land comes under cultivation and former grazing fields are now unavailable. To reduce this competition I suggest irrigation be intensified especially in the North and lake Chad area. Ideas to recharge and replenish the lake must be found.
The constitutional question. Many across the breath of the country believe there is need for a constitutional overhaul if not a replacement of the 1979/99 constitution. Fault lines have emerged from a constitution that was expected to forge unity but has brought distrust and distress. Those who say that the 1979/99 constitution is sacrosanct and immutable should be made aware that a constitution is a living document and could be amended or replaced to reflect realities. Republic of Chile just replaced its 1980 constitution and Nigeria has a history of various constitutions under the British and a minor upliftment after independence.
That the armed forces midwifed the 1979/99 constitution is an aberration and is grounds for its abrogation. It’s time we have a truly civilian constitution of ‘We the Peoples’ without imposition, threat of force or the haste of seeing the military off as in 1998/99. Those campaigning for restructuring and sovereign conference should know that durable constitutions are not done in haste either. Mr President, be ready to set the ball rolling for an enduring constitution that will have us learn from our history, present realities and so withstand the test of time.’
