Nigeria’s ambition to become a $1 trillion economy is both an aspiration and an economic necessity. As Africa’s most populous nation and its fourth largest economy, Nigeria has the potential to transform into a global economic powerhouse. However, achieving this milestone will require strategic reforms, strong governance, and sustained investments in critical sectors.
Nigeria’s current GDP stands at approximately $259 billion, according to the World Bank. To hit the $1 trillion milestone will literally mean adding at least $740 billion to the country’s GDP over the next five years. That will require prioritising economic diversification, infrastructural development, and policy consistency. Economist and former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, emphasised that “Nigeria cannot rely solely on oil revenues to drive economic growth. The key to sustainable development lies in unlocking the potential of agriculture, manufacturing, and digital services,” he said.
However, professor at Lagos Business School, and Member of NATIONAL ECONOMY’s Board of Economists, Bongo Adi, told NATIONAL ECONOMY that the only way Nigeria can achieve a $1 trillion economy over the next five years is by scaling up productivity in goods and services. “That means the country’s GDP would have to scale up by more than 70 per cent over the next five years,” he said. He stated that it would mean prioritising sectors of the economy that would lend themselves to fast upgrading.
Professor Adi cautioned that Nigeria currently has few or no sectors that are competitive to make the country’s products preferred to other products. “There is no sector in the Nigerian economy that has a very strong selling point, except gas, and to an extent, crude oil and solid minerals, which eat into our traditional endowment. We have not managed to use our endowment to add value to other sectors of the economy to the point where we can say they have become competitive. Unfortunately, it seems we are now late because the technology of productivity seems to have ossified in the sense of reaching global expansionism when it comes to productivity.
“Technology is such that it has given some firms enormous power, influence and competitive advantage that it would take a technological upheaval for them to lose their competitive edge. In every industry today there are a few dominant players in the sense that a few firms will control more that 80 per cent productivity in that industry, be it confectioneries, wood products, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, aviation, manufacturing, steel, services, etc. These companies have perfected the innovative system to such an extent that it would take a lot so that once something new emerges in their area of specialisation, they knock it down, leaving a limited scope for any other firm. That is why I said we have reached the end of productivity in the sense that productivity has now been fully domesticated by a few firms. We are in an oligopolistic market world.
“What that means is that national competitiveness is actually a ruse. The only way a nation can become competitive is if it works in the interest of these big firms that control the value chain. Production is by enterprises, not by nations. So, if we really want to make progress we need to find a way to work with those entrepreneurs and their firms.
“For a nation like Nigeria to build up its productive capacity, since none of the top companies that control productivity is native to Nigeria, the only company that is native to Nigeria that is a top player in one particular value chain is Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG), which is number five in terms of exports of liquefied natural gas in the world. That is the only saving grace Nigeria has today to ramp up productivity for growth. Another one is Dangote. These are the only two firms Nigeria has today that have some level of influence in global value chain.
“What determines the productivity of a nation is the control of their firms of global value chain. So, for Nigeria to scale up its economy, it’s not about diversification of this and that. The government will have to find a way to augment, support, optimise the goose that lay the golden egg. The question then is, how do we build up the capacity of NLNG so that it becomes more productive, and how do we build up Dangote so that it can become more productive? Those are not just the lowest hanging fruits, they are the only fruits. It is those companies that can lead the transformation of productivity in Nigeria. If that doesn’t happen our economy will continue to diminish in terms of productivity. It is as simple as that,” said Adi.
Also speaking, the chief executive of AntHill Concepts Limited, and member of the Board of Economists, NATIONAL ECONOMY, Dr. Emeka Okengwu, said the only thing Nigeria can do to achieve a $1 trillion economy is producing more. He said the country cannot attain a $1 trillion economy by consuming what other nations produce. “We should produce and seek market shares. We need to get competitive in our quality and our pricing,” he stated.
Okengwu said such a feat is achievable even before 2030 if the government puts its acts right. He, however, cautioned that in order to be able to achieve that level of production there will be the need for infrastructure. “Central to that infrastructure will be energy, not the high cost of energy Nigeria is having now, but energy that is affordable, working and sustainable. There will also be the need for other allied infrastructure such as roads, storage, but above all, adequate security,” he added.
It warms the hearts of economists that Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.84 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, the fastest in three years, driven mainly by the services sector. The annual GDP growth for 2024 reached 3.40 per cent, an improvement from 2.74 per cent in 2023.
But that can be improved upon with the right strategies and targets. One of Nigeria’s biggest hurdles is its overdependence on crude oil, which accounts for over 90 per cent of its foreign exchange earnings. The volatility of global oil prices has repeatedly exposed the economy to shocks. Diversifying into non-oil sectors such as agriculture, technology, and manufacturing is critical to achieving long-term stability. The chief economic adviser to former President Muhammadu Buhari, Professor Doyin Salami, highlighted that “Agriculture alone has the capacity to significantly boost GDP if properly mechanised and supported with modern infrastructure. Countries like Brazil and India have demonstrated how agribusiness can transform economies.”
Infrastructure remains a significant bottleneck to Nigeria’s economic expansion. Inadequate power supply, poor road networks, and limited rail connectivity hinder productivity and increase the cost of doing business. According to a report by PwC, Nigeria needs to invest at least $3 trillion in infrastructure over the next three decades to close the existing gaps. “Without fixing our power sector, manufacturing and industrialisation will remain constrained. The government must prioritise investments in electricity generation and distribution,” said CEO of Financial Derivatives Company Bismarck Rewane.
CEO of Cowry Asset Management, Johnson Chukwu, cites that foreign direct investment (FDI) is another critical driver of economic expansion. Regulatory uncertainties, policy inconsistencies, and security concerns deter investors. “If Nigeria wants to attract global investors, it must provide a business-friendly environment, eliminate multiple taxation, and ensure policy continuity,” argued Johnson Chukwu.
The current administration of President Bola Tinubu, like his recent predecessors, has stressed the need for digital transformation as it offers a massive opportunity for economic growth. Nigeria’s fintech sector, for instance, has gained global recognition, with companies like Flutterwave and Paystack attracting significant foreign investments. Expanding digital infrastructure and promoting tech-driven solutions could significantly contribute to GDP growth. “We need to position Nigeria as Africa’s Silicon Valley by supporting startups, expanding broadband penetration, and integrating digital education into our curriculum,” Bosun Tijani, Nigeria’s Minister of Communications, Innovation, and Digital Economy, suggested.
That call has been supported by Professor of Development Economics at Adeleke University, Professor Tayo Bello. Bello stressed the need to invest more in Nigeria’s digital economy, stating that that’s the way to go in any modern economy, even as artificial intelligence is altering the ways people do work.
Industrialisation must also take center stage. Nigeria imports a vast majority of its refined petroleum products, machinery, and consumer goods, which depletes foreign reserves and weakens the naira. Establishing industrial hubs and special economic zones could boost local production. “We must develop a strong industrial base to reduce import dependency and increase exports. A country that consumes everything and produces little cannot build a $1 trillion economy,” said Mansur Ahmed, a former president of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN).
