The President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), Prof. Benedict Oramah, has projected that intra-African trade could reach $440 billion by 2035 if the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is fully implemented across the continent.
Speaking on Wednesday at the launch of his book, “Foundations and Evolutions of Structured Trade Finance (Second Volume)” on the sidelines of the Afreximbank 32nd Annual Meetings, Oramah described the trade agreement as a transformational vehicle for Africa’s economic integration and development.
According to him, intra-African trade, estimated at $220.3 billion in 2024 by Afreximbank’s latest figures, could double over the next decade if all member states implement the provisions of AfCFTA.
“Currently averaging about 15 to 17 per cent of total trade, this share is expected to double within a decade as the Free Trade Agreement is fully implemented,” Oramah said.
He noted that Africa’s trading patterns have shifted significantly in recent decades, with trade between Africa and other developing countries increasing from 23 per cent of total African trade in 1995 to 68 per cent in 2024, while trade with advanced economies has dropped below 50 percent.
Oramah warned that this transformation requires a rethink of conventional trade finance models, which were largely designed to support commodity exports and traditional structured finance in North-South trade.
“New realities such as rising manufacturing capacity, the growth of SMEs, the development of regional value chains, and the discovery of natural resources across more countries mean the continent needs new trade finance models tailored to South-South trade,” he explained.
The bank’s newly-released 2025 African Trade Report reinforces this outlook. It shows that intra-African trade rose from $196.04 billion in 2023 to $220.3 billion in 2024, signalling a steady recovery and deeper economic integration despite global economic headwinds.
The report identified South Africa, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe as the top five intra-African exporters in 2024, followed by Mali, Ghana, Zambia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Namibia.
Nigeria, in particular, recorded a sharp increase in intra-African trade, rising from $8.1 billion in 2023 to $18.4 billion in 2024, making it West Africa’s leading intra-African trader. Crude oil remained Nigeria’s largest export to African markets, though exports of refined petroleum products are growing following the launch of the Dangote Refinery.
Oramah noted that the continent is showing signs of reversing the trend of de-industrialisation, with the emergence of new manufacturing hubs and the expansion of value-added production.
“This is a critical moment for African trade,” he said. “If we get the implementation of AfCFTA right, the future of intra-African trade is not just promising—it is transformational.”
