America’s imports of Nigerian goods collapsed by forty-one per cent in July 2025, the steepest one-month contraction in two years, as tariff uncertainty and policy frictions rattled trade between both nations, according to fresh data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Figures showed that U.S. purchases from Nigeria fell from $638.6 million in June to $378.8 million in July. Exports from America to Nigeria also weakened, dropping to $584.4 million from $918.9 million the previous month. The plunge highlighted fragility in Nigeria’s export position at a time of global demand slowdown and rising U.S. protectionism.
The downturn coincided with an executive order signed by President Donald Trump in late July, which raised tariffs on selected African exports from fourteen per cent to fifteen per cent under his “reciprocal tariff regime.” While Nigerian crude oil — the backbone of trade — was mostly spared, analysts said uncertainty over how new measures would be enforced discouraged U.S. buyers from committing to non-oil imports such as agriculture, minerals and manufactured goods.
“The sudden policy shift injected hesitation into existing contracts and discouraged new orders,” a Lagos-based trade researcher told NATIONAL ECONOMY. “Even where tariffs were marginal, the administrative uncertainty made buyers delay shipments.”
Market forces have compounded the strain. A stronger U.S. dollar, higher freight and insurance charges, and compliance costs have eroded Nigerian exporters’ competitiveness. Reduced refinery runs and weaker American energy demand also trimmed crude receipts.
On a year-to-date basis, U.S. exports to Nigeria stood at $3.92 billion against imports of $3.14 billion between January and July, leaving Washington with a trade surplus of $781 million. But the July figures underline a sharp narrowing of Nigeria’s traditional trade advantage with America.
The policy backdrop adds further pressure. Minister of industry, trade and investment, Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, said Nigeria would not retaliate but would double down on reforms to expand domestic production and regional integration.
“Nigeria remains responsive; we are not reacting,” she said. “We’re focused on President Bola Tinubu’s eight-point agenda. We will continue to support domestic investors and deepen trade within Africa under the AfCFTA framework.”
Her remarks came as data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed intra-African trade rose by ₦610 billion in the first half of 2025, reaching ₦4.82 trillion compared with ₦4.21 trillion a year earlier. The expansion suggests Nigeria is gradually pivoting toward African markets as U.S. demand softens.
Economists warn, however, that the near-term impact is negative. The fall in U.S. imports trims foreign-exchange earnings and complicates efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria to stabilise the naira through higher reserves. Trade experts say August and September figures will determine whether July’s slump proves temporary or the start of a sustained decline.
“If tariffs persist and AGOA expires without renewal, the structure of Nigeria’s export markets could shift permanently,” said an Abuja-based economist. “Diversification is no longer a policy slogan but a survival strategy.”
