Nigeria’s economic growth could outperform current projections if expansion in the services and agricultural sectors is sustained, economists have said, citing seasonal consumption, tax reforms and improving sector fundamentals.
Prof. Ken Ife, Lead Consultant to the ECOWAS Commission, said stronger performance in services during the final quarter could provide additional momentum for GDP growth, driven largely by increased consumer spending in the ember months.
Speaking in Lagos, Ife said household consumption typically rises at this time of the year, boosting demand across retail, transport, hospitality and other service-driven activities. He added that transportation costs, often a drag on spending, have eased somewhat following the availability of relatively more affordable petroleum products from the Dangote Refinery.
Ife also said the implementation of the new tax law would further support growth by improving household purchasing power, noting that VAT exemptions on essential items such as medical equipment and educational materials would allow workers to retain more disposable income. According to him, this retained income is likely to be channelled into other sectors of the economy, stimulating broader economic activity.
He said Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) with turnovers below N100 million stand to benefit significantly from tax exemptions, allowing them to scale operations, increase output and create jobs, particularly for young people.
Beyond services, Ife identified oil and gas as another contributor to growth, pointing to improved output levels of about 1.8 million barrels per day, supported by relative stability in oil-producing areas and the opening of new production frontiers.
Also speaking, former Director of Research at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Chris Nemedia, said sustained GDP expansion would depend on continued improvements in the business environment. He called for increased investment in agriculture and its entire value chain, describing the sector as critical to inclusive growth, food security and long-term export potential.
Nemedia urged the government to prioritise mechanised farming, agro-processing and storage infrastructure, adding that such investments would position Nigeria for food self-sufficiency and eventual export growth. He also stressed the importance of reliable and affordable electricity, particularly for industrial hubs, noting that improved power supply would boost domestic production, reduce import dependence and accelerate economic expansion.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently reported that Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 3.98 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, higher than the 3.86 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2024, underscoring early signs of strengthening economic momentum.
