Nigeria’s Telecom Growth Slows As 5G Penetration Stalls At 3%

Nearly four years after the commercial debut, of Nigeria’s fifth-generation (5G) mobile network, it remains in its infancy, with penetration hovering around three per cent, even as consumer appetite for high-speed connectivity grows.
Insights from the Network Performance & 5G Opportunity Analysis report released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) in partnership with Ookla reveal a widening disconnect between device adoption and actual network availability.
The report shows that while ownership of 5G-capable devices is increasing, a large proportion of users cannot access 5G services due to infrastructure limitations. In Lagos State, 70.9 per cent of 5G-enabled devices are unable to connect to any 5G network while in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, 65.6 per cent of such devices remain unconnected.
The findings show a significant infrastructure gap, particularly in Nigeria’s two largest telecom markets. Although Lagos and Abuja record network performance of 40–50 per cent above the national average, rural communities remain largely dependent on 2G and 3G technologies.
However, the divide is not merely technological but geographic. Connectivity quality measured by download speeds, upload capacity, latency and jitter reflects a deeper gap between urban centres and underserved regions.
The NCC’s assessment indicates performance variations among operators. MTN Nigeria emerged as the national leader, delivering the strongest combination of download and upload speeds alongside favourable latency metrics.
Airtel Nigeria remained competitive in download performance but faced latency consistency challenges as 5G services expand. Globacom and 9mobile (now operating as T2 Mobile) recorded weaker quality-of-service indicators, with T2 trailing competitors in several metrics.
The NCC recognises identified key priorities, including accelerating 4G and 5G expansion beyond core business districts, improving network stability for real-time applications, and strengthening regulatory oversight to ensure infrastructure commitments are met.
Speaking to LEADERSHIP, chairman of the Association of Licensed Telecommunications Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), Engr. Gbenga Adebayo, attributed the slow uptake to industry-wide sustainability challenges.
According to him, penetration is work in progress and with time, it will take off and reach the required metrics.
“If you look over the last five years, remember that we had a period of industry sustainability issues that impacted our ability to invest, so the lull you have seen in the penetration of 5G is also a function of that non-sustainability. If you count those four years, you may wish to discount about two years of non-activity,” he said.
He added, “It’s a work in progress and with time we will get there.”
The ALTON chairman’s remarks underscore financial and operational pressures that have constrained capital investment during a critical rollout phase for some of the telecommunication companies
According to him, “Our industry maintained basic and static pricing despite rising inflation, currency volatility, ageing infrastructure and escalating energy crisis, Our tariff fell significantly below cost. Investment slowed. Networks became strained. The sector was approaching a state where service rationing was becoming a real possibility.’’
In 2025, over $1 billion in new investments enhance network expansion, including the construction of new sites, upgrades to existing infrastructure, and fibre migration.
Consequently, industry observers believe further investment in the telcos would bridge the wide gap between the 4G and 5G spectrum. As such investment will further expand both network coverage, capacity and improvements in service quality just as it was recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Industry stakeholders opine that 5G deployment is significantly more capital-intensive than previous generations. Just as it requires denser site installations, fibre backhaul expansion and advanced radio systems much of which is imported and dollar-denominated amidst inflation foreign exchange volatility and soaring diesel costs amongst other factors worsening the situation.
Commenting, digital infrastructure expert, Obinna Adumike, asserts that operators must balance heavy capital expenditure with market realities.
“Telecom operators are grappling with unstable power supply and rising operational costs. Without cost-reflective tariffs or targeted incentives, operators will likely prioritise optimising existing 4G networks over aggressive 5G expansion.
“To roll out 5G infrastructure, many telcos have to replace radios, base station equipment and transmission systems. The question is whether they have fully recovered investments in existing infrastructure,” he said.
Adumike further said, “Nigeria is a sensitive market. You cannot simply increase tariffs without considering consumers as there are so many factors that come into play which are the human elements and government. elements. 5G is also more technically demanding and may require overhauling large portions of existing infrastructure.”
He further observed that environmental and regulatory due diligence has contributed to measured deployment. “I feel government agencies are cautious about environmental impact considerations without not looking at the waves, radiation and all of that. So I am sure they are also doing their due diligence, so it might take a while but in time, we will get there,” he said.
He added that telcos might want to roll out 5G, probably in Lagos and Abuja, over time as they might not go to certain locations because the cost-benefit analysis might not make much sense. Hence the reality of Nigeria’s 5G ambition will take a while before it gets to where the 4G spectrum is at the moment.
Meanwhile, regulatory inconsistencies across states, particularly around right-of-way charges and approval processes, continue to slow fibre expansion with frequent fibre cuts and vandalism further compounding infrastructure risks.
Experts allude that while 5G-capable smartphones are becoming more common, their affordability remains a concern. Many subscribers still rely on 4G devices, which sufficiently meet everyday connectivity needs.
As this translates to until there is widespread demand for ultra-high-speed applications, operators may remain cautious about heavy 5G investments.
Consequently, the NCC report presents a clear verdict which shows that consumer readiness is advancing faster than network deployment. However, until there exists coordinated policy harmonisation, investment in infrastructure and its protection with improved energy stability and enhanced device affordability, the promise of 5G ultra-fast speeds, low-latency applications and enterprise innovation may remain out of reach for much of the population.