The growing integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into Nigeria’s economy is expected to displace over 20 million jobs in the agriculture and port sectors, experts have warned. While AI presents opportunities for increased efficiency, productivity, and economic growth, it also poses a significant threat to employment in industries where millions of Nigerians currently earn their livelihoods.
Experts who spoke with NATIONAL ECONOMY emphasised the paradox of AI adoption: while it enhances automation, reduces costs, and streamlines operations, it simultaneously threatens traditional jobs, particularly in labour-intensive sectors. The agriculture industry, which employs about 35 per cent of Nigeria’s workforce, is likely to see widespread job losses due to AI-driven mechanisation, precision farming, and autonomous equipment.
The workforce spans tasks such as land clearing, planting, harvesting, and livestock management—many of which can be automated with AI-powered machinery.
“AI-driven farming technologies, including automated tractors, robotic harvesters, and drone monitoring, will make traditional farm labour redundant,” said Dr. Femi Oladapo, an agricultural economist. “Once fully implemented, these technologies could displace over 20 million Nigerian farmworkers.”
The ripple effect extends beyond farms. Thousands of Nigerians work in farm-related activities such as food vending, transportation, and equipment maintenance. A decline in agricultural employment could disrupt entire local economies that rely on farming for survival.
According to NATIONAL ECONOMY findings, the nation’s seaports, another key economic hub, face a similar shift. Apapa Port in Lagos, Nigeria’s busiest trade gateway, employs over 30,000 direct workers in cargo handling, administration, and logistics, while an additional 70,000 indirect jobs depend on port operations, including truck drivers, freight forwarders, and dockworkers. AI-powered automation, such as smart container tracking, autonomous cranes, and AI-managed logistics, could slash employment figures drastically, leaving only a few hundred supervisors to oversee operations.
A case study of Shanghai Smart Port, which processes 47.4 million containers annually with full automation and no human operators, highlights the potential scale of job displacement. But experts told NATIONAL ECONOMY that if Nigerian ports follow a similar path, more than 80 per cent of workers at Apapa, Tin Can Island, Onne, and Port Harcourt ports could be rendered redundant. They argued that without government intervention, Nigeria’s maritime industry may suffer a social and economic fallout from any AI transition.
The global precedent is clear. Amazon has replaced more than 100,000 warehouse workers with robots, and Google laid off 12,000 employees as AI systems took over key functions.
The World Economic Forum estimates that while AI and big data will create new employment opportunities, large-scale workforce displacement is inevitable. A PwC Nigeria report suggests AI could contribute $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030, but warned that countries failing to develop digital skills could be left behind.
The federal government has initiated steps to integrate AI into the economy. The Federal Ministry of Communications and Digital Economy launched a national strategy in 2022 to drive digital transformation, but implementation has been slow. Analysts argued that without aggressive policies focused on digital skills training, STEM education, and workforce reskilling, the country risks deepening its unemployment crisis.
“There’s no avoiding AI-driven transformation,” said Professor Tayo Ogunbiyi, a technology policy expert. “The question is whether Nigeria will prepare its workforce or suffer the consequences of inaction.
“We need proactive policies that not only embrace AI but also prepare our workforce for the future. Countries like China and India are already investing heavily in AI skills training; Nigeria cannot afford to be left behind.”
A Development Economist at Adeleke University, Professor Tayo Bello, hinted that the introduction of new technologies have always been the springboard to development over the centuries of industrialisation. Citing the creative disruption of the 13th Century that ushered in the use of sewing machines over handmade fabrics, Bello stated that there has always been the need for the people to upskill and reskill for economic development, stressing that AI will bring development and job growth to Nigeria if the federal, state and local governments can seize the opportunities of the moment to reinvest in the education sector to prepare for the inevitable future of AI.
However, the chief executive of AntHill Concepts Limited, and member of NATIONAL ECONOMY Board of Economists,Dr. Emeka Okengwu, caveated that AI may not disrupt the Nigerian economy with such speed as Nigerians are anticipating. He hinted that Nigeria may begin to feel the impact on the economy in a decade or more. Citing an example, he said the use of AI is already permeating the banking and insurance industries, but that the banks are already retaining much of their workforce.
The challenge remains: how to balance technological progress with job security. Without urgent policy interventions, AI could disrupt Nigeria’s economy faster than the workforce can adapt.
