A recent investigation by NATIONAL ECONOMY has revealed a staggering 215 instances of grid collapses spanning the past 13 years.
This revelation underscores the persistent challenges facing the country’s electricity supply despite ongoing efforts by the government to bolster economic growth.
Despite the federal government’s partial privatisation of the power sector in 2013, which retained control over the transmission segment, meaningful progress has remained elusive. Trillions of naira in investments have been poured into the sector, raising questions about the effectiveness of current strategies.
The causes of these grid collapses are multifaceted, ranging from gas shortages and vandalism to erratic fluctuations and load rejection by Distribution Companies (Discos).
These disruptions exacerbate Nigeria’s already fragile power situation, posing significant obstacles to economic development under President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
A retrospective examination of the data reveals a troubling trend of grid failures over the years. In 2010 alone, Nigeria experienced 42 total and partial crashes; 19 in 2011; 24 in 2012; still 24 in 2013; 13 in 2014, and 10 partial and total grid crashes in 2015.
In addition, in 2016, it rose to 28; it was 21 in 2017; 13 in 2018; 11 in 2019, and four in 2020. In 2021, the country suffered two collapses, and about four in 2022 and 2023, after the nation celebrated a reprieve of 400 days of stability on the grid, it suffered about three incidents in quick succession.
The manual management of the national grid in Nigeria poses significant challenges, hampering progress and accountability within the electricity industry. Without a transparent system in place, stakeholders struggle to address issues such as load rejection, damaged power lines, and faulty equipment effectively.
Electricity generating companies (GenCos) claim increased power generation in recent years, yet consumers continue to experience frequent blackouts. This blame-shifting dynamic extends to the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) and electricity distribution companies (DisCos), each pointing fingers at the other for inefficiencies in power distribution.
The most recent blackout, occurring in 2024, left the entire nation in darkness for the first time this year. The collapse resulted in a drastic reduction in power generation, plummeting from 3,852 megawatts in the morning to a mere 59 megawatts by noon.
Although some restoration efforts were observed later in the day, significant parts of the country, including the capital Abuja, remained devoid of electricity.
The World Bank puts the economic losses from unreliable electricity supply in Nigeria at an estimated N7 trillion to N10 trillion per year, which is about five to seven percent of the country’s GDP annually.
“This trend must be reversed to ensure better economic outcomes for businesses and citizens,” said Shubham Chaudhuri, World Bank Country Director for Nigeria.
Apart from the huge effect epileptic power supply has on electricity dependent businesses in the country, critical generating machines of the generation companies are also affected.
According to the country’s electricity generation companies (GenCos), grid instability triples the cost of maintaining generating sets.
“Frequency deviations out of tolerable zones are not only damaging the units but are also increasing considerably, the maintenance costs close to three times the normal maintenance costs,” said Dr Joy Ogaji, Executive Secretary, Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC).
“The GenCos are supposed to start and stop at most 20 times a year but in Nigeria, the GenCos start and stop 365 days every year and this wear and tear are affecting the plants which cause maintenance issues at a time when they should be optimal,” she added.
The power grid is a network of interconnected power systems that delivers power across the value chain: generation, transmission and distribution.
It is managed by the Independent System Operator (ISO), maintained by the Transmission Service Provider (TSP), while both subsidiaries are managed by the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN).
Over the years, industry experts have blamed the menace of grid instability majorly on frequency roaming engendered by either load rejection or uninstructed generation/overload.
“Research has shown that outages/ grid collapses occur when there are system disturbances along the transmission grid.
“Such disturbances could include a massive drop of load from a substation that would cause the grid to become unstable,” said Ogaji
As specified in the Grid Code, the system frequency under normal circumstances is expected to be between a lower limit of 49.75Hz and an upper limit of 50.25Hz, but may reach an upper bound stress limit of 51.25Hz and a lower bound stress limit of 48.75Hz in extreme circumstances.
Unfortunately, the grid lacks a reliable SCADA system necessary to provide the vision grid Controllers require to manage it efficiently.
This factor, among others, contributes to system instability often experienced in the country, a resultant effect of which is a total or partial blackout.
The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) also affirmed this in its 2022 annual report.
“The SO’s lack of systems to grant it real-time visibility of the network, that is Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) is a major causal factor leading to poor frequency management in the NESI,” it said.
Also, at the recent maiden edition of the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) Market Participants and Stakeholders Roundtable, industry experts had identified non-implementation of this digital infrastructure as one of the factors contributing to grid instability.
For clarity, Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) and Energy Management Systems (EMS) are two critical energy industry technologies for monitoring and controlling energy generation, distribution, and consumption.
While SCADA monitors and controls physical infrastructure such as power plants and electrical grids in real-time. EMS, on the other hand, focuses on optimising energy consumption and lowering costs by analysing energy data and providing energy managers with actionable insights.
These two technologies, when combined, enable energy companies to improve operational efficiency, reduce downtime and improve the overall reliability and security of the energy infrastructure.
According to Nextier, a multi-competency firm focused on solving complex development problems, the nation’s power grid lacks adequate automation.
It stressed the need for a real-time monitoring and control of distribution systems in achieving a reliable electricity supply in Nigeria’s Electricity Supply Industry (NESI).
That said, not only does SCADA helps facilitate real time fault detection, it is a web of communication lines through which information is sent, thus affording players along the electricity supply value chain the opportunity to see activities on the grid.
This was further corroborated by the General Manager, System Planning, TCN, Kabiru Adamu.
His words, “SCADA is to allow remote supervision of the system. So, from the control room of the National Control Centre and from the Grid Controller office, we should be able to have some visibility and control of the grid and also acquire the data of what is happening in remote locations.
“So, it is a tool for the system operator that helps him have clear visibility on the system and also have access to the information on what is happening all over the system and where necessary he has to trigger some level of control of the system.
“He can do that through a remote command to the system.”
Meanwhile, the TCN, in its reactions, said the World Bank sponsored SCADA system project would be completed and deployed by the end of the fourth quarter of 2024.
According to the General Manager, Technical Services (TCN), Balarabe Abdullahi, the deployment will help reduce most of the challenges associated with efficient supply of electricity in the country.
Abdullahi, who is also the chairman of the company’s steering committee on implementation of the World Bank SCADA/EMS and Telecommunication project said all is set for the full deployment of the new SCADA system.
Also, the TCN Executive Director, Independent System Operator, Mamman Lawal, also affirmed that all equipment for the project have been imported into the country.
According to him, staff of TCN have been sent to Europe and China for training in every area, including the technical and telecommunication management of the SCADA system when deployed.
Adamu explained that the deployment will help reduce most of the challenges associated with efficient supply of electricity in the country.
Going by these disclosures, it is safe to say that the Nigerian Government has put in concerted efforts towards ensuring stable power supply, it is hoped that by the end of 2024, Nigeria is able to celebrate the milestone of a newly deployed SCADA/EMS system.
Stakeholder said the implementation of SCADA promises to revolutionise the management of Nigeria’s electricity grid by providing real-time monitoring and data acquisition capabilities. This digital automation enables comprehensive oversight of the entire power system, ensuring accountability for disruptions in power supply.
With SCADA in place, stakeholders, whether GenCos, TCN, DisCos, or consumers, will be held accountable for any negligence or malpractice affecting the grid.
SCADA would enable swift identification and enforcement of penalties for any actions that jeopardize the integrity of the grid.
Furthermore, SCADA facilitates real-time data and voice exchange between remote power stations and the National Control Centre (NCC), streamlining operation, control, and management of the power system network. Additionally, SCADA implementation is expected to reduce operating costs for distribution companies, thus alleviating the financial strain they currently face.
By enhancing power supply reliability and preventing disturbances in frequency and power flow, SCADA holds the potential to transform Nigeria’s electricity industry. With its ability to address longstanding challenges and improve operational efficiency, the adoption of SCADA represents a crucial step towards a more sustainable and reliable energy future for Nigeria.
She noted that frequency deviations triple maintenance costs for generating sets, severely affecting the operational efficiency of power plants.
The lack of a reliable SCADA system further exacerbates system instability, as affirmed by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) in its 2022 annual report.
Industry experts have identified the non-implementation of this digital infrastructure as a major contributing factor to grid instability.
Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) and Energy Management Systems (EMS) are critical technologies for monitoring and controlling energy generation, distribution, and consumption. These systems enable energy companies to improve operational efficiency, reduce downtime, and enhance the reliability and security of the energy infrastructure.
Kabiru Adamu, General Manager, System Planning, TCN, emphasised the importance of SCADA in providing remote supervision and control of the grid.
He highlighted its role in enhancing visibility and data acquisition across the entire system, facilitating timely interventions to prevent disruptions in power supply.
