Analysts at Commercio Partners have projected Nigeria’s inflation rate to fall within the 15-20 per cent range in 2025, aligning with the federal government’s target, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebasing shifts the base year to 2024.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has rescheduled its first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting for the year to February 18-19, amid delays in releasing rebased inflation and GDP figures by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Dr. Ifeanyi Ubah, Head of Investment Research at Commercio Partners, noted that the rebasing, which expands the basket of goods and services from 740 to 960 items, will reflect changing economic realities. He said the adjustment is expected to lower headline inflation figures due to statistical effects, but the true impact will depend on price movements across different commodity categories.
“With no immediate catalysts for an inflation surge in 2025 and lower weightings for key drivers like food and energy, inflation could drop significantly by mid-year,” Ubah stated.
The CBN’s MPC meeting is expected to clarify its stance on interest rates amid the evolving inflationary outlook, with economic analysts watching closely for signals on monetary policy direction.
