In spite of GDP growth, Nigeria’s population surge is pushing more Nigerians into poverty. Data by NATIONAL ECONOMY reveals how progressively Nigerians have become poorer over the years as the average rate of population growth doubled the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate over the past eight years.
If a nation’s population is growing faster than its GDP, per capita GDP growth will be negative.
Between 2015 and the first quarter of 2022, Nigeria’s population growth averaged 2.6 percent. During the same period, the country’s GDP averaged 1.33 percent, theoretically halving GDP per capita over the period.
Prior to 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, in which Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.4 and 3.11 percent respectively, Nigeria’s GDP between 2015 and 2020 averaged 0.69 percent, making the country’s average population growth rate 3.76 times more than its GDP growth rate.
Reacting to the scenario, chief executive officer of Anthill Concepts Limited, and member of the Board of Economists, NATIONAL ECONOMY, Dr. Emeka Okengwu, noted that there is no way a country could have such a sustained population growth paired with dwindling economic growth and not have the sort of problems the country is facing.
Okengwu said the country’s economy is not growing fast enough to absorb its fledgling youth population of graduates into the labour market, hence the manifold economic and social problems the country is currently facing.
Former President of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN), Dr Uche Olowu, said the economy has witnessed some level of growth but stated that it is not inclusive considering the nation’s fast growing population.
He pointed out that for the country to achieve meaningful growth and impact positively on the various sectors, the level of growth must outstrip population growth.
To achieve this, Olowu said there is a need for the government to embark on reforms that would attract more Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into the country and focus more on growing the ICT sector.
“There is growth but it is not inclusive. The unemployment and population growth rate is still very high. The nation’s GDP should grow by seven to eight per cent to reflect more on the economy, if not, we are pouring water on a rock. We need to outstrip population growth because if the population growth is higher than GDP, we would sink deeper and deeper into poverty.
The implication is that population growth will undermine President Muhammadu Buhari’s economic plan to lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years if the population continues to grow faster than the economy.
President Buhari’s plan to lift Nigerians out of poverty includes devoting resources towards human capital development, efficient management of Nigeria’s resources, greater financial inclusion, and transformation of the agricultural sector to ensure food security is crucial to poverty eradication.
“In this regard, Nigeria continues to strengthen its existing social safety net initiative by increasing access to enrollees who fit the various programmes in the scheme,” the president said.
Buhari also wants the federal government to provide easier and increased access to financial services for micro and small-scale businesses through the government’s Enterprise and Empowerment Programme.
The president also said his administration is determined to do more, including massive investment in education, especially of the girl-child, stressing that his administration holds the view that education is a critical driver of sustainable development and has immense capacity to eradicate poverty.
“Educating our children, especially the girl child, contributes significantly to the fight against poverty, environmental sustainability and improved health as well as building peace and resilient societies,” he noted.
Buhari said the Federal Government had also integrated the economic, social and environmental dimensions of the SDGs into its economic plans.
However, a social affairs analyst, Dr. Gbenga Gbangbose expressed reservation about the president’s plan, citing that the country does not have the kind of money needed to invest that would lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years. He noted that currently, almost 100 percent of the federal government’s revenue from oil is devoted to debt servicing.
He wondered where the federal government would get such money from, considering that the it has not been able to resolve the persisting crisis with the Academic Staff Union of Universities.
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