In today’s Nigeria, the struggle against rising food prices has become a daily battle for many households. Adebayo Onafowankan, a trader from Ojota, Lagos, captures the desperation of many: “These days, you give thanks to God if you can afford two meals a day.” With food inflation surging to a staggering 40.53 per cent, the highest in nearly three decades, millions of Nigerians are grappling with an unbearable cost of living. Basic staples like rice have seen dramatic price increases, and food insecurity looms large over Africa’s most populous nation.
President Bola Tinubu, who campaigned on promises of food security, has yet to deliver substantial relief. The cost of essential items continues to climb, with rice prices more than tripling and bread prices more than doubling compared to the previous year. These price hikes have placed an enormous strain on ordinary citizens, who already dedicate a significant portion of their income to food.
Agricultural disruptions due to regional conflicts and widespread insecurity have exacerbated the food crisis. Northern Nigeria, in particular, has been severely affected by violence and kidnappings, which have displaced farmers and hindered food production. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projects that over 26 million Nigerians are at risk of food insecurity this year.
The desperation has led to tragic incidents, such as the deadly stampede in Lagos where people scrambled for discounted rice sold by the customs service. Food-related violence and attacks on warehouses are becoming increasingly common as hunger drives people to extreme measures. Enogie Ekhator, a restaurant owner in Edo State, illustrates the harsh reality: “A meal of bread and beans that used to cost N500 now costs more than N1000.”
Despite the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) efforts to curb inflation through interest rate hikes, the structural issues driving inflation remain unaddressed. The governor of the CBN, Olayemi Cardoso, has pledged to take necessary measures to combat inflation, but experts argue that deeper economic reforms are needed. The country’s market dynamics are distorted by policies such as food import bans, which have not sufficiently boosted local production and have instead heightened food insecurity.
Economic reforms introduced by President Tinubu, including the removal of fuel subsidies and a uniform exchange rate, have led to a cost-of-living crisis. While these reforms have been welcomed by international investors, they have placed additional burdens on the average Nigerian. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Nigeria is projected to slip to the fourth largest economy in Africa in 2024, behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria.
In response to the crisis, Nigerian farmers have called for a new Presidential Initiative on Food Security. They proposed a comprehensive strategy to end hunger and generate significant revenue through agriculture. Led by prominent figures like Muhammad Abba Liman, these farmers advocated involving a wide range of stakeholders, including academics, large-scale farmers, and local government authorities, to create a robust agricultural framework. Liman emphasises the need for all-season farming supported by adequate security and financial incentives for genuine farmers.
The proposed initiative aims to empower millions of Nigerians through agriculture, potentially creating over 10 million jobs and achieving food self-sufficiency within two years. This ambitious plan also includes exporting surplus food to other countries, highlighting the potential for Nigeria to transform its agricultural sector.
Meanwhile, the federal government has assured that the country would soon overcome its present food shortage and inflation, which has reached 40 per cent, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Minister of agriculture and food security, Abubakar Kyari, recently revealed that the Bola Tinubu government has measures in place to address the present food inflation and increase food production in the country, saying that the country is expecting a bumper harvest before year-end (November).
In the meantime, the minister stated that in addition to the importation by the private sector, the federal government will import 250,000MT of wheat and 250,000MT of maize. The imported food commodities in their semi-processed state will target supplies to the small-scale processors and millers across the country.
In 2023, Nigerians spent $2.13billion to import food items from foreign countries.
The government said a 150-day duty-free import window for food commodities, suspension of duties, tariffs, and taxes for the importation of certain food commodities (through land and sea borders) would be enforced. These commodities include maize, husked brown rice, wheat, and cowpeas. Under this arrangement, imported food commodities will be subjected to a Recommended Retail Price.
Financial economist at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Dr. Felix Echekoba, believes that a definite time limit for the stabilisation of food prices is tantamount to leaving the country’s food security to chance, hence, the government should leave the importation window open pending the time Nigeria will have produced enough food for sustainability.
He further said, “Ultimately, Nigeria’s path to overcoming its food crisis lies in a coordinated effort to enhance agricultural productivity, stabilise food prices, and ensure that every Nigerian has access to affordable, nutritious food. The government’s ability to foster a supportive environment for agricultural growth will determine whether Nigeria can break free from the cycle of food insecurity and build a more resilient and prosperous future for its citizens.”
However, responding, the chief executive of Anthill Concepts, and member of the Board of Economists, NATIONAL ECONOMY, Dr. Emeka Okengwu, told this medium that no responsible government would leave its borders open for the importation of food ad infinitum because it would be tantamount to attacking its local industry. He stressed that this is just a stop-gap measure until the prices of food stabilise. He said that would be enough time for the country to ramp up its food production given what the government has put in place. “If it lasts much longer than that, it would be creating problems for the local industry,” he said.
On the other hand, the chief executive of the Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, said in his opinion the federal government would be as flexible as possible. “If in the next six months the situation does not change I’m sure the government will be flexible. There is nothing wrong about that,” he said.
He cautioned that it’s not as if the government will allow businesspeople to bring in finished rice. “What the government is going to allow is to bring in paddy rice — paddy that the rice processing mills will use as their feedstock to produce rice because many of the rice mills are idle. They are not doing up to 10 per cent of their capacity. We have the largest rice milling capacity in Africa; we need paddy to keep our mills busy and our youth employed.
“When we have enough wheat and produce enough flour, the prices of bread and noodles will fall; that is the kind of trajectory we are looking at,” Yusuf added.
