The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down Nigeria’s real GDP growth forecast for 2024 from 3.3 per cent to 3.1 per cent, citing weaker-than-expected economic activities in the first quarter of the year. This adjustment was detailed in the IMF’s latest update to the global economic outlook report titled: “Global Economy in a Sticky Spot.”
The report highlighted that the downgrade in Nigeria’s economic growth also contributed to a revision in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region’s growth projection from 3.8 per cent to 3.7 per cent.
“The forecast for growth in sub-Saharan Africa is revised downward, mainly as a result of a 0.2 percentage point downward revision to the growth outlook in Nigeria amid weaker than expected activity in the first quarter of this year,” stated the report.
While maintaining growth projections for other major African economies, including a steady 0.9 per cent for 2024 and 1.2 per cent for 2025, the IMF noted a slight decline in economic growth expectations for Egypt in both 2024 and 2025.
Globally, the IMF reaffirmed a steady growth forecast of 3.2 per cent for 2024 and 3.3 per cent for 2025, aligning with its previous April forecast. However, the report underscored notable developments, particularly in advanced economies like the United States, where the growth projection for 2024 was revised downward to 2.6 per cent.
Conversely, emerging markets and developing economies saw upward revisions in growth forecasts, driven by robust economic activity in Asia, particularly in China and India. Latin America and the Caribbean, however, faced downward revisions in growth projections for 2024, attributed to factors like flooding in Brazil and demand moderation in Mexico.
Nigeria’s GDP growth for the first quarter of 2024 was reported at 2.98 per cent, slightly lower than the 3.46 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023, as per the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The services sector played a pivotal role, expanding by 4.32 per cent and contributing 58.04 per cent to the overall GDP.
Despite the IMF’s revision, the federal government of Nigeria maintains a more optimistic outlook, projecting a 3.76 per cent economic growth for 2024, exceeding forecasts from major international development organisations.
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