The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted Nigeria’s economic growth at 2.9% for 2024, consistent with the rate recorded in 2023, as reported in its latest World Economic Outlook. This projection marks a 0.2 per cent decrease from the IMF’s July forecast and a 0.4 per cent drop from its April projection, reflecting slower-than-anticipated economic activity in the first half of the year.
IMF Deputy Chief of Research, Jean-Marc Natal, attributed the revised growth forecast to disruptions in agriculture, due to flooding, and challenges in oil production, including security issues and maintenance delays. Speaking at a press conference during the IMF/World Bank annual meetings, Natal explained that these factors have impacted Nigeria’s economic output, resulting in the updated growth estimate.
Looking ahead to 2025, the IMF projects a growth rate of 3.2 per cent for Nigeria, which is 0.2 per cent higher than previous forecasts. This rate, however, remains below the World Bank’s projections. The World Bank’s recent Africa’s Pulse report anticipates a GDP growth of 3.3 per cent for Nigeria in 2024, with further acceleration to 3.6 per cent in 2025-2026, as macroeconomic and fiscal reforms begin to yield positive results.
Regarding inflation, the IMF projects a decline from an average of 32.55 per cent in 2024 to 25 per cent in 2025. In contrast, the World Bank observed that Nigeria’s inflation peaked at 34.2 per cent in June 2024, declining to 32.2 per cent by August.
To address high inflation, IMF Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas recommended that countries like Nigeria adopt tighter monetary policies while carefully balancing fiscal policies. Gourinchas emphasised that excessive austerity could hinder economic recovery and stressed the need to protect essential spending on services, healthcare, and public investment to foster growth.
Nigeria’s economic growth in the first two quarters of the year was reported at 2.98 per cent and 3.19 per cent, respectively, despite rising inflation and the depreciation of the naira.
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