Nigeria, the world’s most populous black nation, grapples with a stark demographic-economic paradox characterised by a rapidly expanding population and sluggish GDP growth. This convergence of demographic pressure and economic stagnation carries profound implications for Nigeria’s socio-economic development, particularly concerning wealth distribution and income per capita.
Between 2020 and date, Nigeria’s average population growth is 2.42 per cent, while its average GDP growth, including its projection for 2024 is 2.28 per cent, although disregarding 2020, which recorded negative growth owing to the Covid-19 pandemic, Nigeria’s average GDP hovers around 3.1 percent. By implication, real growth is barely 0.68 per cent, which is hardly enough to consider as growth that would lift any population out of poverty.
The exponential growth of Nigeria’s population, currently estimated at over 229 million and projected to become the third most populous country globally by 2050, poses a formidable challenge to the nation’s economic prosperity. At Nigeria’s current population growth rate, at least 5.54 million persons are added to the population every year, which the current GDP growth cannot assure of decent standard of living for its newcomers.
The implications of high population growth on Nigeria’s wealth and income per capita are multifaceted and far-reaching. At its core, a burgeoning population strains the country’s finite resources and exacerbates competition for essential commodities, such as food, water, and housing. Consequently, this phenomenon perpetuates poverty, income inequality, and socioeconomic disparities, constraining the nation’s capacity to improve living standards and achieve inclusive growth.
Furthermore, high population growth places immense pressure on critical infrastructure and public services, including healthcare, education, and transportation. The inadequate provision of these services undermines human capital development, stifles productivity gains, and impedes economic diversification efforts. Nigeria’s low human capital base, characterised by limited educational attainment and literacy rates, hampers the nation’s ability to harness its demographic dividend effectively.
Moreover, the mismatch between population growth and economic expansion exacerbates unemployment and underemployment challenges, particularly among the youth demographic. Despite having a large proportion of the population below 45 years, Nigeria struggles to create sufficient employment opportunities to absorb its burgeoning workforce. The consequences are evident in the high unemployment rates, which contribute to social unrest, crime, and economic instability.
In terms of income per capita, the combination of high population growth and low GDP growth undermines Nigeria’s capacity to generate wealth and foster equitable income distribution. With a growing population outstripping economic output, the average income per person dwindles, perpetuating a cycle of poverty and diminishing prospects for upward mobility.
Addressing the implications of high population growth on Nigeria’s wealth and income per capita, the president, Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria b(ISAN), Moses Igbrude, has noted that it requires concerted efforts from the government, civil society, and the private sector. He stated that comprehensive strategies promoting sustainable development, economic diversification, and human capital investments are imperative. “These strategies should prioritise investments in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and technology to enhance productivity, foster innovation, and create viable employment opportunities. Additionally, initiatives to promote family planning, women’s empowerment, and poverty alleviation are essential to mitigate the adverse effects of rapid population growth and promote inclusive growth,” he said.
Also, a financial economist at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Dr. Felix Echekoba, said Nigeria’s demographic-economic dynamics underscore the urgent need for proactive measures to address the challenges posed by high population growth and low GDP growth. He said by adopting holistic approaches that prioritise human development, economic empowerment, and sustainable resource management, Nigeria can navigate the complexities of its demographic transition and unlock its potential for inclusive and equitable growth. He said failure to address these challenges risks perpetuating poverty, inequality, and social instability, undermining Nigeria’s aspirations for sustainable development and prosperity.
Echekoba added that to ensure economic growth at the current level of population growth, the country needs to be growing at a rate of at last 10 percent annually.
Another economist, and retired lecturer, Dr. Samuel Olaleye, noted that Nigeria’s youth bulge, characterised by a disproportionately large percentage of young people, presents both opportunities and challenges. “While the youth demographic harbours the potential for innovation and economic dynamism, failure to harness this potential adequately can lead to increased unemployment, social unrest, and economic instability,” he noted.
He cited that the juxtaposition of a high population and low GDP growth amplifies socio-economic challenges, particularly in critical sectors such as healthcare, education, and housing. He stressed that inadequate access to quality healthcare services exacerbates health disparities, leaving vulnerable populations underserved and susceptible to preventable diseases. “Similarly, the education sector struggles to accommodate the growing demand for quality education, leading to overcrowded classrooms, inadequate facilities, and compromised learning outcomes,” he stated.
A dean at Adeleke University, Professor Tayo Bello, on his part, noted that one of the most pressing implications of Nigeria’s demographic-economic imbalance is the pervasive issue of unemployment and underemployment, particularly among the youth population.
According to him, the labour market fails to absorb the influx of job seekers adequately, leading to high unemployment rates and a proliferation of informal and precarious employment. “This phenomenon not only undermines productivity and economic growth but also fuels social unrest and exacerbates crime rates,” he stated.
An environment economist, and social affairs analyst, Dr. Paul Okorie, said the strain of a high population on Nigeria’s natural resources exacerbates environmental degradation, deforestation, and depletion of arable land. He noted that rapid urbanisation and population growth exert pressure on water resources, sanitation facilities, and waste management systems, exacerbating environmental pollution and public health risks.
“Furthermore, competition for scarce resources, such as land and water, fuels conflicts and exacerbates socio-economic tensions,” he stated.
Speaking further, Okorie said addressing the implications of high population and low GDP growth in Nigeria necessitates comprehensive policy interventions that prioritise sustainable development, economic diversification, and human capital investment.
He said key areas of focus include implementing policies to diversify the economy away from oil dependence towards sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and technology, fostering innovation, and creating job opportunities.
He added that investing in education, healthcare, and skills training to empower the workforce, enhance productivity, and promote inclusive growth are equally important.
Bello said prioritising investments in infrastructure, including transportation, energy, and telecommunications, to support economic growth, improve living standards, and enhance connectivity.
Okorie cited that strengthening governance structures, promoting transparency, and combating corruption to create an enabling environment for sustainable development and private sector investment as enforced by the late Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore would also be a right step.
