OPEC Mulls Another Output Hike By December

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is taking a look at a marginal increase in output, a speculation that is currently unsettling the global oil market.
Oil prices settled marginally lower on Monday as OPEC’s plans to increase oil output once again outweighed hopes of a trade deal framework between the U.S. and China and renewed U.S. sanctions on Russia.
Brent crude futures were down about 32 cents, or nearly 0.5 per cent, at $65.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed 19 cents or 0.3 per cent lower at $61.31. Both contracts fell around 1 per cent in early trade.
Eight OPEC+ nations are leaning towards making another modest increase in oil output for December when they meet on Sunday as Saudi Arabia pushes to reclaim market share, four sources familiar with the talks said.
U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are due to meet on Thursday to decide on a framework that could pause tougher U.S. tariffs and China’s rare-earth export curbs, easing market jitters around a trade war.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that U.S. and Chinese officials had hashed out a “substantial framework” for a trade deal that could avoid 100 per cent U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and achieve a deferral of China’s rare-earth export controls in trade discussions this week.
“Crude futures are taking a breather from last week’s steep rally as President Trump is meeting with Chinese President Xi and staff for trade negotiations on Thursday to hopefully finalize most differences,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.
The United States hit Russia’s major oil companies with sanctions on Wednesday, which could hurt Russia’s oil exports if enforced and be a positive for crude prices, Kissler added.
“While the futures market has added in additional trade with China and less crude exports from Russia, traders remain cautious as to how much this will actually affect global supplies,” Kissler said.
Concerns over lacklustre demand have weighed on the market, with Brent falling to its lowest since May earlier this month, but renewed sanctions on Russia from the U.S. along with stronger-than-expected U.S. demand have helped buoy prices.
“The hope for bulls is that U.S. consumption continues to recover, otherwise it seems the drift lower seen so far today is likely to intensify,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Bank.
The OPEC and its allies have changed course this year by reversing previous production cuts to regain market share, helping in part to keep a lid on oil prices.
Iraq, the OPEC group’s biggest overproducer, was in negotiations over the size of its quota within its available capacity of 5.5 million barrels per day, oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said at an oil conference on Monday.
The fire at Iraq’s Zubair oilfield on Sunday did not impact exports from the country, he added.
Last week, Brent and WTI rose 8.9 per cent and 7.7 per cent, respectively, on U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia.
“There are likely some continued challenges for Russian oil to enter the market, but it depends on how sanctions will be enforced,” said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah.