The global oil market is closely watching the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies as the group accelerates the unwinding of production cuts faster than previously planned, primarily as a corrective move to address earlier overproduction by some members.
Under the new schedule, OPEC+—which includes non-OPEC members such as Russia—has committed to raising output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the months of May, June, and July 2025. In May alone, OPEC pumped 26.75 million bpd, representing a 150,000 bpd increase over April’s output, according to a Reuters survey released Monday.
The largest contribution to May’s output rise came from Saudi Arabia, which boosted production by 130,000 bpd. However, that increase still fell 100,000 bpd short of its quota.
Eight OPEC+ members, including five core OPEC producers — Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates — were collectively scheduled to raise output by 310,000 bpd in May. But actual increases came in at 180,000 bpd after factoring in compensation cuts totaling 165,000 bpd, which were applied to Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE to offset previous overproduction.
According to the survey, Iraq curtailed its output in May under growing pressure to improve compliance with OPEC+ quotas. The United Arab Emirates also pumped below its allocated quota, reflecting its relatively modest compensation cut obligations, sources familiar with the matter said.
While the survey and OPEC’s own secondary source data suggest that members are largely adhering to quotas, some external estimates—such as those from the International Energy Agency (IEA)—indicate that actual production levels in Iraq and the UAE may be significantly higher than reported.
The Reuters survey tracks supply to the market and is compiled using flows data from financial group LSEG, as well as input from other tracking companies such as Kpler, and information sourced from oil companies, OPEC officials, and industry consultants.
The accelerated output hikes will remain in place through July 2025 as OPEC+ works to gradually ease the production restrictions imposed during the pandemic and subsequent global energy shocks, while simultaneously penalising member states that have repeatedly breached their production caps.
