As many as 16.99 million Nigerians could face acute hunger by January 2027, according to the latest projections by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), which warned that conflict, high food prices and disrupted agricultural production will continue to threaten food security across the country.
The figures are contained in FEWS NET’s Food Assistance Outlook Brief for July 2026, which projects that between 16.0 million and 16.99 million Nigerians will require urgent food assistance by January 2027.
Although the projected figure is lower than the 20.0 million to 20.99 million people estimated to be in need of urgent food assistance in July 2026, it remains above the number recorded in January 2026 and Nigeria’s five-year average.
FEWS NET ranked Nigeria fourth globally among countries expected to have the highest number of people requiring urgent food assistance by January 2027, behind Sudan, Pakistan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The projected 16.0 million to 16.99 million Nigerians represent between five and 10 per cent of the country’s total population under FEWS NET’s classification bands.
According to the report, the projected decline is expected to result mainly from the December harvest, although food insecurity will remain severe in several parts of the country.
The network said conflict across northern Nigeria is expected to continue driving Crisis-level food insecurity and worse outcomes in January 2027.
It noted that insecurity is disrupting livelihoods, restricting cultivation and constraining household incomes, while staple food prices are expected to remain high.
FEWS NET added that inaccessible communities and Local Government Areas most affected by conflict-related movement restrictions in the North-East are expected to continue facing Emergency food insecurity conditions.
It said conflict-affected households unable to cultivate farmland would remain heavily dependent on markets, while production and supply disruptions would keep food prices elevated despite the completion of the main harvest in December.
Nigeria’s current July 2026 estimate of between 20.0 million and 20.99 million people requiring urgent food assistance was the second-highest globally after Sudan.
“Despite the completion of the main harvest in December, staple food prices are expected to remain high as production and supply disruptions coincide with high market reliance among conflict-affected households who are unable to cultivate. In the North East, inaccessible areas and Local Government Areas most affected by conflict-related movement restrictions are expected to continue to face Emergency,” the organisation stated.
Globally, FEWS NET projected that between 145 million and 155 million people across the 30 countries it monitors will require urgent food assistance by January 2027.
South Sudan is projected to have the highest share of its population requiring food assistance at between 50 and 55 per cent, followed by Sudan at 40 to 45 per cent, Yemen at 35 to 40 per cent and Somalia at 30 to 35 per cent.
Pakistan is projected to overtake Nigeria by January 2027, with the number of people requiring urgent food assistance rising from 12.0 million to as high as 17.99 million.
The report also identified Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Mali and Chad as countries at risk of slipping into full-blown famine.
FEWS NET explained that its population-in-need estimates include people already experiencing Crisis-level hunger or worse, classified as IPC Phase 3 and above, as well as those who would fall into that category without ongoing humanitarian assistance.
NATIONAL ECONOMY previously reported that up to 34.7 million Nigerians could face acute food insecurity in 2026, according to PwC’s *Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026* report.
Similarly, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization projected that about 34.7 million Nigerians could experience severe food insecurity during the June-August 2026 lean season, based on its October 2025 Cadre Harmonisé analysis.
Farmers in the North-Central and North-West regions have also warned that rising production costs, insecurity and significant post-harvest losses could force many of them to abandon farming.
