The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast, citing improved investor confidence, stronger oil output, and a more stable macroeconomic environment.
In its latest Global Financial Stability Report released in Washington on Tuesday, the IMF projected Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow by 3.9% in 2025—up by 0.5 percentage points from its previous forecast—and further expand by 4.2% in 2026, representing a 0.9-point upward revision.
For 2024, the Fund revised its growth estimate to 4.1%, 0.7 percentage points higher than earlier predictions, reflecting the recent GDP rebasing that now captures more informal sector activities.
Deniz Igan, Chief of the IMF Research Department, attributed the improved outlook to the appreciation of the naira since July, rising investor sentiment, a supportive fiscal policy, and higher oil production driven by improved security in oil-producing regions.
“These developments have contributed to stronger hydrocarbon growth and overall economic resilience,” Igan said.
She noted that Nigeria’s upgraded projections signal renewed optimism for Africa’s largest economy as it pushes forward with macroeconomic reforms aimed at stabilising prices, attracting investment, and diversifying revenue sources.
On a regional scale, the IMF also raised its growth projections for Sub-Saharan Africa, forecasting 4.1% growth in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, supported by policy reforms and economic stabilisation in countries such as Nigeria and Ethiopia.
However, Igan warned that vulnerabilities persist, particularly among resource-dependent and conflict-affected nations still facing fiscal and structural challenges.
“In such an environment, it is crucial for countries to strengthen institutions, deepen structural reforms, and mobilise domestic revenue through effective tax systems,” she said, adding that improving debt management and governance will be key to sustaining the region’s economic momentum.
