Presently, Nigeria ranks as the third-largest economy in Africa by nominal GDP, which stands at USD377 billion, after South Africa (USD480 billion) and Egypt (USD430 billion), while Algeria ranks fourth at USD317 billion.
Oil and gas dominate Nigeria’s exports, accounting for 90 per cent of export revenue and 14 per cent of GDP. The other drivers of the economy are financial services, telecommunications, agriculture, manufacturing and entertainment.
Nigeria is a mixed economy and a lower-middle-income country with a GDP per capita of USD1,556, compared with South Africa’s USD16,000. The disparity is due to a larger population.
South Africa’s population is estimated at 65.4 million people in 2026, while Nigeria’s population in 2026 is projected at 242 million people and is expected to reach 400 million in 2050 at a growth rate of between 2.1 per cent and 2.4 per cent per annum.
The growing population poses a major economic threat unless it is well balanced with commensurate economic output.
In a previous article titled “Economy, Population Threat And Options”, which was published in The Sun newspaper on August 31, 2019, I noted that the imbalance between Nigeria’s population growth and economic growth posed a threat to the economy and that unless appropriate measures were taken to rectify the imbalance, it would cause drastic socioeconomic disruptions going forward.
In the past, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had also noted that Nigeria’s economic output must grow at least twice the population growth rate and warned about the scourge of unemployment and the need to adopt a proactive, holistic approach to halt its rise.
The federal government and CBN are working in pari passu and in accordance with the necessary fiscal and monetary policies to boost economic growth and development.
President Tinubu is ambitious about growing the economy and has set a target of a USD1 trillion economy by 2030.
And the CBN keyed into the President’s vision and has already implemented a major policy, the banks’ recapitalisation, which would contribute to driving the economy towards attaining the USD1trillion target.
Banks’ recapitalisation is germane because the financial system is the axle on which the economy’s wheel turns.
The financial system is a major driver of the economy; a robust one is needed, given that Nigeria’s economy is largely bank-based.
The implementation of the policy is expected to reinforce the strength, health and dynamics of the financial system and deepen financial intermediation.
It will enable greater credit flow to the real sector, including medium- and small-scale enterprises, which are the engines of growth and which the CBN is supporting through financial inclusion.
Besides a robust financial system, which CBN ensures, other drivers of economic growth include investments, natural resources, technology, human capital, skilled labour and infrastructure.
Nigeria’s current stock of infrastructure is 30 per cent of GDP, below the World Bank benchmark of 70 per cent, and experts have noted that it would require USD100 billion annually to bridge the gap.
Infrastructure deficit and inflationary pressure also contribute to poverty, and an estimated 62 per cent of Nigeria’s population, which equates to about 130 to 140 million people, live below the poverty line.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) noted that over 60 per cent of Nigerians were “multidimensionally poor”, meaning they lacked access to basic infrastructure, sanitation, employment, and health care.
Going forward, to mitigate the infrastructure component of poverty, the National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (NIIMP) aims to increase the infrastructure stock to 70 per cent of GDP by 2043.
President Tinubu empathises with citizens and has developed solutions to ameliorate the economic situation in the short and long term.
Three million vulnerable households have benefited from the Renewed Hope Conditional Money Transfer Programme, which is a kind of “Helicopter Money Drop”, and more than one million people have accessed support under government credit schemes.
The Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation (Credit Corp) has disbursed N37 billion in consumer loans.
The Nigerian Education Loans Fund( NELFUND) has supported more than one million students with over N184 billion for tuition and upkeep
And there has been an increase in the funding for primary health care facilities across the country.
On the inflation segment, CBN is in control.
Inflation is an economic headwind and a thief of value, eroding income and purchasing power, lowering investment returns, and engendering poverty, among other negative effects.
CBN has fought inflation aggressively with a persistent tight monetary policy, which has disinflated the economy and is still on it.
In addition to reducing inflation, CBN has also stabilised the economy, attracted foreign capital inflows, increased foreign reserves, and achieved growth.
The economy grew by 4.0 per cent in Q4 2025 and by 3.89 per cent in Q1 2026, and is projected to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026 and by 4.3 per cent in 2027.
CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso and his team are well-connected to the challenges facing the economy.
They have the courage of their ownvictions and are focused, decisive, strategic a,nd reresults-orientedn thdevelopingolutions.
Nwobu is a Chartered Stockbroker and Policy Analyst
Oil and gas dominate Nigeria’s exports, accounting for 90 per cent of export revenue and 14 per cent of GDP. The other drivers of the economy are financial services, telecommunications, agriculture, manufacturing and entertainment.
Nigeria is a mixed economy and a lower-middle-income country with a GDP per capita of USD1,556, compared with South Africa’s USD16,000. The disparity is due to a larger population.
South Africa’s population is estimated at 65.4 million people in 2026, while Nigeria’s population in 2026 is projected at 242 million people and is expected to reach 400 million in 2050 at a growth rate of between 2.1 per cent and 2.4 per cent per annum.
The growing population poses a major economic threat unless it is well balanced with commensurate economic output.
In a previous article titled “Economy, Population Threat And Options”, which was published in The Sun newspaper on August 31, 2019, I noted that the imbalance between Nigeria’s population growth and economic growth posed a threat to the economy and that unless appropriate measures were taken to rectify the imbalance, it would cause drastic socioeconomic disruptions going forward.
In the past, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had also noted that Nigeria’s economic output must grow at least twice the population growth rate and warned about the scourge of unemployment and the need to adopt a proactive, holistic approach to halt its rise.
The federal government and CBN are working in pari passu and in accordance with the necessary fiscal and monetary policies to boost economic growth and development.
President Tinubu is ambitious about growing the economy and has set a target of a USD1 trillion economy by 2030.
And the CBN keyed into the President’s vision and has already implemented a major policy, the banks’ recapitalisation, which would contribute to driving the economy towards attaining the USD1trillion target.
Banks’ recapitalisation is germane because the financial system is the axle on which the economy’s wheel turns.
The financial system is a major driver of the economy; a robust one is needed, given that Nigeria’s economy is largely bank-based.
The implementation of the policy is expected to reinforce the strength, health and dynamics of the financial system and deepen financial intermediation.
It will enable greater credit flow to the real sector, including medium- and small-scale enterprises, which are the engines of growth and which the CBN is supporting through financial inclusion.
Besides a robust financial system, which CBN ensures, other drivers of economic growth include investments, natural resources, technology, human capital, skilled labour and infrastructure.
Nigeria’s current stock of infrastructure is 30 per cent of GDP, below the World Bank benchmark of 70 per cent, and experts have noted that it would require USD100 billion annually to bridge the gap.
Infrastructure deficit and inflationary pressure also contribute to poverty, and an estimated 62 per cent of Nigeria’s population, which equates to about 130 to 140 million people, live below the poverty line.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) noted that over 60 per cent of Nigerians were “multidimensionally poor”, meaning they lacked access to basic infrastructure, sanitation, employment, and health care.
Going forward, to mitigate the infrastructure component of poverty, the National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (NIIMP) aims to increase the infrastructure stock to 70 per cent of GDP by 2043.
President Tinubu empathises with citizens and has developed solutions to ameliorate the economic situation in the short and long term.
Three million vulnerable households have benefited from the Renewed Hope Conditional Money Transfer Programme, which is a kind of “Helicopter Money Drop”, and more than one million people have accessed support under government credit schemes.
The Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation (Credit Corp) has disbursed N37 billion in consumer loans.
The Nigerian Education Loans Fund( NELFUND) has supported more than one million students with over N184 billion for tuition and upkeep
And there has been an increase in the funding for primary health care facilities across the country.
On the inflation segment, CBN is in control.
Inflation is an economic headwind and a thief of value, eroding income and purchasing power, lowering investment returns, and engendering poverty, among other negative effects.
CBN has fought inflation aggressively with a persistent tight monetary policy, which has disinflated the economy and is still on it.
In addition to reducing inflation, CBN has also stabilised the economy, attracted foreign capital inflows, increased foreign reserves, and achieved growth.
The economy grew by 4.0 per cent in Q4 2025 and by 3.89 per cent in Q1 2026, and is projected to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026 and by 4.3 per cent in 2027.
CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso and his team are well-connected to the challenges facing the economy.
They have the courage of their ownvictions and are focused, decisive, strategic a,nd reresults-orientedn thdevelopingolutions.
Nwobu is a Chartered Stockbroker and Policy Analyst
