Nigeria’s Exports To China Plunge 54% To N506.57bn Despite Zero-Tariff Deal

Nigeria’s merchandise exports to China fell by 54.3 per cent to N506.57 billion in the second quarter of 2026, despite a zero-tariff trade arrangement introduced to improve access for Nigerian products to the Chinese market.
The decline, representing a drop of N601.82 billion from the N1.108 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2025, occurred as imports from China increased, widening Nigeria’s trade deficit with the Asian country.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) foreign trade report showed that Nigeria’s imports from China rose by 19.26 per cent, from N4.96 trillion in the second quarter of 2025 to N5.92 trillion in Q2 2026.
Consequently, the country’s trade deficit with China increased by N1.56 trillion, representing a 40.43 per cent rise, from N3.85 trillion to N5.41 trillion within one year.
The figures indicate that Nigeria imported goods worth approximately N11.68 for every N1 worth of merchandise it exported to China during the quarter, compared with an import-export ratio of N4.48 to N1 in the corresponding period of 2025.
China also strengthened its position as Nigeria’s largest source of imports, accounting for 41.02 per cent of the country’s total imports of N14.42 trillion during the quarter.
This was higher than the 32.45 per cent share recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
The decline in exports to China contrasted with the growth recorded in Nigeria’s overall merchandise exports during the period.
According to the NBS, Nigeria’s total exports increased by 18.77 per cent, from N22.75 trillion in Q2 2025 to N27.02 trillion in Q2 2026.
Exports to Asian countries also rose by 17.55 per cent, from N7.42 trillion to N8.72 trillion.
However, China’s contribution to Nigeria’s exports to Asia dropped from 14.93 per cent to 5.81 per cent, while its share of the country’s total merchandise exports fell from 4.87 per cent to 1.87 per cent.
In contrast, India recorded a stronger performance, emerging as Nigeria’s leading export destination in Asia.
Nigerian exports to India increased by 65.95 per cent, from N1.98 trillion in the second quarter of 2025 to N3.29 trillion in Q2 2026.
A quarter-on-quarter comparison also showed that Nigeria’s exports to China declined by 12.99 per cent, from N582.20 billion in the first quarter of 2026 to N506.57 billion in the second quarter.
However, the figures do not provide sufficient evidence to determine the impact of China’s zero-tariff policy, which took effect on May 1, 2026.
This is because only transactions recorded in May and June benefited from the preferential arrangement, while April exports preceded its implementation.
Also, the NBS figures measure the naira value of merchandise traded rather than the physical volume of shipments. Consequently, the data do not establish whether the decline resulted from lower export volumes, changes in commodity prices or shifts in the composition of Nigeria’s exports.
China introduced the zero-tariff arrangement for Nigeria and 19 other African countries on May 1, 2026, under a policy scheduled to run until April 30, 2028.
The initiative extended preferential market access previously enjoyed by 33 African least developed countries, bringing the total number of beneficiary countries to 53.
Under the arrangement, eligible Nigerian products are granted duty-free access to the Chinese market, subject to applicable customs procedures, rules of origin and tariff quotas.
Chinese Ambassador to Nigeria, Yu Dunhai, had announced the agreement in Abuja in March, expressing optimism that it would create new opportunities for Nigerian exporters.
He said the policy followed the signing of an economic partnership framework between both countries on March 26, aimed at strengthening trade, investment and economic cooperation.