Nigeria’s power sector recorded losses of N2.61 billion in the first quarter of 2026 as transmission inefficiencies prevented the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) from meeting performance targets set by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC).
According to NERC’s first-quarter 2026 report, the Transmission Loss Factor (TLF) averaged 7.96 per cent during the period, exceeding the 7.00 per cent benchmark under the Multi-Year Tariff Order (MYTO) and resulting in financial losses and additional payment obligations to electricity generation companies (GenCos).
The Commission explained that the TLF measures the proportion of electricity lost during transmission before it reaches electricity distribution companies (DisCos) and other off-takers.
It noted that the first-quarter figure was higher than the 7.27 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, representing a 0.69 percentage point increase and a 0.96 percentage point shortfall from the MYTO target.
NERC estimated that N257.91 million of the losses arose from excess transmission losses, while N2.35 billion represented payments due to GenCos for electricity generated but not delivered to customers.
“Exceeding the TLF target means the TSP will not be able to meet its full revenue requirement, as there is no provision to recover the revenue needed to cover the excess losses from customers,” the commission said.
It added that the estimated cost of the 0.96 percentage point underperformance in the quarter was N2.61 billion, although this was lower than the N3.13 billion recorded in the previous quarter.
Beyond the financial losses, the report highlighted a decline in the stability of the national grid, with frequency fluctuations worsening during the review period.
NERC said the average lower daily frequency dropped to 49.11Hz, while the average upper frequency increased to 50.72Hz, widening the quarterly frequency range to 1.61Hz from 1.27Hz recorded in the preceding quarter.
“The 0.34Hz increase in the average quarterly frequency range recorded in 2026/Q1 relative to 2025/Q4 indicates a slight decline in the stability of the national grid’s frequency profile,” the commission stated.
The regulator also raised concerns over persistent voltage instability across the transmission network.
It noted that although the national grid code prescribes a transmission voltage range of 313.50kV to 346.50kV, the average lower operating voltage during the quarter fell to 304.21kV, while the average upper voltage rose to 349.88kV.
According to NERC, such fluctuations can damage industrial equipment, disrupt commercial operations and force businesses to rely on alternative power sources outside the national grid.
The report underscores the continued operational challenges facing Nigeria’s electricity transmission network despite ongoing reforms and investments aimed at improving grid efficiency and reliability.
